— Senator Kamala Harris (Pence-Harris Debate October 7 2020 ~ minute 37)
During the 2020 Vice Presidential Debate with Vice President Mike Pence, Senator Kamala Harris cited a prediction from Moody’s Analytics on job growth. This is the same organization Hillary Clinton cited as the Democratic presidential candidate during the 2016 election debates.
However, it is important to note that Moody’s has a dismal and highly partisan record on these economic predictions.
Inaccurate Predictions
By the end of [Trump’s] presidency, there [will be] close to 3.5 million fewer jobs […] The economy will suffer a recession that begins in early 2018 and extends into 2020
— Moody’s Analytics, page 1 & 4
Employment: Moody’s prediction for 2019 was 146.1M jobs for a Trump presidency and 151.0M jobs for a Clinton presidency. Now proven false — 2019 employment was 152.0M.
GDP: Moody’s prediction for 2019 was $17,122B GDP for a Trump presidency and $17,951B for a Clinton presidency. Now proven overwhelmingly false — 2019 GDP was $21,734B. Also, in 2018, the US had the first 3% growth in a decade.
S&P: Moody’s prediction for 2019 was $1,605 S&P for a Trump presidency and $2,012 for a Clinton presidency. Now proven overwhelmingly false — 2019 S&P was $3,230.
His recent predictions were not only wrong, the results were almost the antithesis. Historically, Moody’s author (Mark Zandi), has produced largely partisan analysis. He did issue advance warnings (November 2005) of the overheating housing market under President Bush. However, his analysis said “more worrisome is the inflation risk”; not a crash in the housing market. Moody’s has demonstrated it is not a source for reliable predictions.
Nevertheless, Senator Kamala Harris also relied on Moody’s and characterized them as reputable. I reviewed Moody’s and other economic predictions in a previous article: Trump or Obama: Who Gets Credit for the Economy?
Moody’s / Mark Zandi: Not Impartial
The author of Moody’s economic predictions is Pennsylvania resident Mark Zandi, registered Democrat since at least 2009. Zandi’s political contributions have been quite sizable and have benefitted various Democrats, including the maximum to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. Open Secrets lists John McCain as Zandi’s sole Republican recipient.
Zandi’s work with McCain was often cited by Democrats characterizing Zandi as impartial.
I’m just saying what Mark Zandi from Moody’s, an adviser to John McCain, is saying”
— House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)I think [he] is a Republican. I am pretty sure he is,”
— Then Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-NV) said of Zandiconservative Republican.
— Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-NY) described Zandi on Fox News“I think if you listen to economists like Mark Zandi, who was the economic adviser to John McCain in the presidential election, he has said this is the right mix.”
— Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)
However, these statements were false or misleading. Zandi said at the time, “I’m a registered Democrat.” Since then, Zandi has produced substantially partisan opinions in support the Democratic Party. Zandi lauded President Barack Obama’s fiscal stimulus plan and housing policy. McCain also supported the stimulus plan, which could explain why Zandi was willing to work with McCain. Zandi described president George W. Bush economic polices as “particularly poor.” Zandi said of the 2012 presidential race between Romney and Obama, “For Economy, It Doesn’t Matter Who Wins.” Zandi supported Hillary Clinton’s plan and panned Donald Trump’s. Unsurprisingly, he now predicts success of Joe Biden’s plan over Trump’s. Moody’s and Mark Zandi are exposed as very low quality and highly biased.
